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Ranking the Next Pandemic - Eyes on Disease X

Ranking the Next Pandemic - Eyes on Disease X | healthcare technology | Scoop.it

The past several decades have seen an alarming spike in communicable disease outbreaks worldwide. Given a confluence of host, virologic, environmental, and human factors, experts agree that the next pandemic could already be on the horizon.

 

 

In a globalized world, changes in how people use land and interact with their ecosystems—such as rapid deforestation and agricultural expansion—have resulted in humans and animals coming into more frequent and intense contact with one another, increasing opportunities for what is known as "zoonotic disease spillover."

 

 

In the past few years alone, numerous disease outbreaks have had suspected or confirmed zoonotic origin, including mpox (formerly known as monkeypox), Ebola virus disease, dengue fever, and COVID-19.

 

Experts also recognize the need to prepare for another possible Disease X, a term used to describe a currently unknown pathogen with pandemic potential.

 

To direct resources toward the most high-consequence pathogens, it is paramount that leaders have an accurate concept of pandemic risk—for individual viruses as well as viral families. Several institutions are developing disease rankings at national and global levels, including the Priority Zoonotic Diseases Lists facilitated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint created by the World Health Organization. 

 

The original SpillOver risk ranking framework (SpillOver 1.0), an open-source webtool launched by researchers at the University of California, Davis One Health Institute, estimated the relative spillover potential of wildlife-origin viruses to humans based on a series of host, viral, and environmental risk factors determined via expert opinion and scientific evidence. 

 

Its next iteration, SpillOvers 2.0, has rebranded to better describe the diversity and frequency of virus spillovers to people. The new platform uses a One Health approach, which recognizes the interdependence of human, animal, and environmental health. It will expand to include domestic animal and vector-borne viruses and assess pandemic risk rather than just spillover risk for wildlife viruses.

 

 

 

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Analyzing the Essential Attributes of Nationally Issued COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps

Analyzing the Essential Attributes of Nationally Issued COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps | healthcare technology | Scoop.it

Contact tracing apps are potentially useful tools for supporting national COVID-19 containment strategies. Various national apps with different technical design features have been commissioned and issued by governments worldwide.


Objective: Our goal was to develop and propose an item set that was suitable for describing and monitoring nationally issued COVID-19 contact tracing apps.

 

This item set could provide a framework for describing the key technical features of such apps and monitoring their use based on widely available information.


Methods: We used an open-source intelligence approach (OSINT) to access a multitude of publicly available sources and collect data and information regarding the development and use of contact tracing apps in different countries over several months (from June 2020 to January 2021). The collected documents were then iteratively analyzed via content analysis methods. During this process, an initial set of subject areas were refined into categories for evaluation (ie, coherent topics), which were then examined for individual features.

 

These features were paraphrased as items in the form of questions and applied to information materials from a sample of countries (ie, Brazil, China, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, and the United Kingdom [England and Wales]). This sample was purposefully selected; our intention was to include the apps of different countries from around the world and to propose a valid item set that can be relatively easily applied by using an OSINT approach.


Results: Our OSINT approach and subsequent analysis of the collected documents resulted in the definition of the following five main categories and associated subcategories:

 

(1) background information (open-source code, public information, and collaborators);

 

(2) purpose and workflow (secondary data use and warning process design);

 

(3) technical information (protocol, tracing technology, exposure notification system, and interoperability);

 

(4) privacy protection (the entity of trust and anonymity); and

 

(5) availability and use (release date and the number of downloads).

 

Based on this structure, a set of items that constituted the evaluation framework were specified. The application of these items to the 10 selected countries revealed differences, especially with regard to the centralization of the entity of trust and the overall transparency of the apps’ technical makeup.


Conclusions: We provide a set of criteria for monitoring and evaluating COVID-19 tracing apps that can be easily applied to publicly issued information. The application of these criteria might help governments to identify design features that promote the successful, widespread adoption of COVID-19 tracing apps among target populations and across national boundaries.

 

 read the study at https://mhealth.jmir.org/2021/3/e27232

 

 

nrip's insight:

Where a lot of studies falter, is they dont focus on ease of use as a primary criteria of evaluation. Digital Health tools for far too long have faced criticism due to the ease of use factor.

 

It takes several iterations for any app/tool to become easy to use when the use cases contain a lot of data input. As such, contact tracing tools will do well by being built over surveillance and data collection platforms like MediXcel Lite and Commcare.

 

The data collection platforms must also focus on contact tracing as a type of app they generate along with the longitudinal and case based apps they currently allow.

 

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Tracing the Origin of the Covid Virus

Tracing the Origin of the Covid Virus | healthcare technology | Scoop.it

With cases soaring across the globe, the Covid-19 pandemic is nowhere near its end, but with three vaccines reporting trial data and two apparently nearing approval by the US FDA, it may be reaching a pivot point.

 

In what feels like a moment of drawing breath and taking stock, international researchers are turning their attention from the present back to the start of the pandemic, aiming to untangle its origin and asking what lessons can be learned to keep this from happening again.

 

Two efforts are happening in parallel. On November 5, the World Health Organization quietly published the rules of engagement for a long-planned and months-delayed mission that creates a multinational team of researchers who will pursue how the virus leaped species. Meanwhile, last week, a commission created by The Lancet and headed by the economist and policy expert Jeffrey Sachs announced the formation of its own international effort, a task force of 12 experts from nine countries who will undertake similar tasks.

 

Both groups will face the same complex problems. It has been approximately a year since the first cases of a pneumonia of unknown origin appeared in Wuhan, China, and about 11 months since the pneumonia’s cause was identified as a novel coronavirus, probably originating in bats.

 

The experts will have to retrace a chain of transmission—one or multiple leaps of the virus from the animal world into humans—using interviews, stored biological samples, lab assays, environmental surveys, genomic data, and the thousands of papers published since the pandemic began, all while following a trail that may have gone cold.

 

The point is not to look for patient zero, the first person infected—or even a hypothetical bat zero, the single animal from which the novel virus jumped.

 

It’s likely neither of those will ever be found. The goal instead is to elucidate the ecosystem—physical, but also viral—in which the spillover happened and ask what could make it likely to happen again.

 

more at WIRED : https://www.wired.com/story/two-global-efforts-try-to-trace-the-origin-of-the-covid-virus/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-intl-en

nrip's insight:

Back tracing the origins of an outbreak or an epidemic is way tougher than people expect it to be. So much changes during the period the epidemic ravages on, including the data from the time at which it was breaking out. Its high time, the world and health experts learn that the best way to manage and trace the roots of an outbreak is to prevent it, and if a break out happens, act fast towards containing its spread and studying it in parallel.

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Role Of AI In Healthcare, TB Prevalence In Nigeria

Role Of AI In Healthcare, TB Prevalence In Nigeria | healthcare technology | Scoop.it

The use of technology in health care has proven to increases care providers, the capabilities and to patients, access to improved quality of healthcare. During the GDD summit organized by BAO Systems, it occurred that some of the most beneficial countries include Nigeria.

 

Speaking at the summit, InStrat Global Health Solution (InStratGHS) CEO, Okey Okuzu, discussed the design, deployment, and impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tool – EWORS for TB case finding in Nigeria. EWORS is built on the MediXcel Digital Health Platform by Plus91

 

“Our goal is to overcome barriers to healthcare delivery in low resource settings presented by infrastructural challenges,” he noted. “We achieve this by leveraging mobile health technologies that allow for smooth flow of information across the health system for more effective patient health management or policy decisions regardless of physical location.”

 

The MediXcel-EWORS system is designed to drive actionable AI for public health intervention by sieving through a large volume of data to enable specific geospatial identification of disease cases and also predict the possibility of an outbreak based on historical data and set algorithm threshold.

 

This helps local surveillance personnel to make data-informed decisions to curb the spread of diseases. Field data, captured on android devices wirelessly transferred to a cloud server for storage and analysis.

 

“The EWORS engine conducts advanced analytics to detect unexpected elevations in indicator data and populates this information on real-time GIS heat maps, reports, and alert notifications,” he added.

 

The alert notifications are generated in form of emails/SMS and sent to designated individuals when data from local areas exceed set thresholds, indicating undetected community spread. Designated teams review alarms and mobilize to conduct mass screening outreach at Alarm locations.

 

Under a USAID-funded program led by the KNCV TB Foundation, and in partnership with Plus91 PVT, InStrat GHS deployed its EWORS predictive engine to 14 Nigerian states as a solution to find undetected TB cases in the country. The Analyses of the data from program inception to date demonstrate that prioritization of case finding outreach efforts, based on hotspot analytics and alarms, increases the yield of those efforts.

 

This strategy is crucial to finding missing TB cases and improving case-finding, especially in low resource settings,

 

read more at https://www.cio.co.ke/role-of-ai-in-healthcare-tb-prevalence-in-nigeria/

 

read about Instrats at https://instratghs.com/

 

read about Plus91 and MediXcel at https://plus91.in/about-us/

 

read about KCNV at https://kncvnigeria.org/

 

nrip's insight:

Plus91's Disease Surveillance Systems help states and national health bodies predict disease outbreaks and prevent epidemics by providing early warning alerts to the ground-level staff. This coupled with MediXcel Lite provide complete end to end solutions for data collection, data management, soft and  hard analysis, reporting, visualization, ML based prediction and alerting 

 

have questions?

Use the form on the right or DM me on twitter @nrip

nrip's curator insight, May 15, 2021 1:27 PM
nrip's insight:

Plus91's Disease Surveillance Systems help states and national health bodies predict disease outbreaks and prevent epidemics by providing early warning alerts to the ground-level staff. This coupled with MediXcel Lite provide complete end to end solutions for data collection, data management, soft and  hard analysis, reporting, visualization, ML based prediction and alerting 

 

have questions?

Use the form on the right or DM me on twitter @nrip

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Web-Based Apps for Responding to Acute Infectious Disease Outbreaks in the Community: Systematic Review

Web-Based Apps for Responding to Acute Infectious Disease Outbreaks in the Community: Systematic Review | healthcare technology | Scoop.it

Web-based technology has dramatically improved our ability to detect communicable disease outbreaks, with the potential to reduce morbidity and mortality because of swift public health action.

 

Apps accessible through the internet and on mobile devices create an opportunity to enhance our traditional indicator-based surveillance systems, which have high specificity but issues with timeliness.


Objective: The aim of this study is to describe the literature on web-based apps for indicator-based surveillance and response to acute communicable disease outbreaks in the community with regard to their design, implementation, and evaluation.

Results: Apps were primarily designed to improve the early detection of disease outbreaks, targeted government settings, and comprised either complex algorithmic or statistical outbreak detection mechanisms or both.

 

We identified a need for these apps to have more features to support secure information exchange and outbreak response actions, with a focus on outbreak verification processes and staff and resources to support app operations.

 

Conclusions: Public health officials designing new or improving existing disease outbreak web-based apps should ensure that outbreak detection is automatic and signals are verified by users, the app is easy to use, and staff and resources are available to support the operations of the app and conduct rigorous and holistic evaluations.

 

read the study at https://publichealth.jmir.org/2021/4/e24330

 

nrip's insight:

The large scale adoption and constant improvement of these kind of tools - i.e. Tools for Identifying, managing and responding to Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Communities should have started 10 years ago. This is one of my favorite areas of #DigitalHealth. Having been the architect of a number of successful Epidemic Detection and Prediction systems, I feel in this area of Digital Health we still have a long way to go till we reach level where Epidemic Management Teams trust the systems more than their Ears on the ground.

 

But I know that with constant effort, regular additions of modern data paradigms , regular effort and improvement and interdisciplinary cooperation, a point in time where outbreaks can be contained before they occur will come by. Thought that day  is out there in the future ,that  its possibility  alone should drive us forward.

 

To learn about or have a demo of Plus91's Early Warning and Outbreak Detection System which is based on the principles of Syndromic Surveillance and Machine Learning, please contact me via the form with the words "Surveillance Demo" in the message. I promise you it is unlike what you would have seen elsewhere.

 

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Social Media Can Boost Disease Outbreak Monitoring, Study Finds

Social Media Can Boost Disease Outbreak Monitoring, Study Finds | healthcare technology | Scoop.it

Monitoring social media websites like Twitter could help health officials and providers identify in real time severe medical outbreaks, allowing them to more efficiently direct resources and curb the spread of disease, according to a San Diego State University studypublished last month in the Journal of Medical Internet Research,Medical News Today reports.


Study Details


For the study, lead researcher and San Diego State University geography professor Ming-Hsiang Tsou and his team used a program to monitor tweets that originated within a 17-mile radius of 11 cities. The program recorded details of tweets containing the words "flu" or "influenza," including:


  • Origin;
  • Username;
  • Whether the tweet was an original or a retweet; and
  • Any links to websites in the tweet.


Researchers then compared their findings with regional data based on CDC's definition of influenza-like illness.

The program recorded data on 161,821 tweets that included the word "flu" and 6,174 tweets that included the word "influenza" between June 2012 and the beginning of December 2012.


According to the study, nine of the 11 cities exhibited a statistically significant correlation between an uptick in the number of tweets mentioning the keywords and regional outbreak reports. In five of the cities -- Denver, Fort Worth, Jacksonville, San Diego and Seattle -- the algorithm noted the outbreaks sooner than regional reports.

Drew Hodges's curator insight, February 19, 2015 5:50 PM

This is a cool article to show the real life change that social media is creating. Before it was stated that it would take up to two weeks to detect an outbreak of a disease but now with social media it can be done in a day. 

This article really shows how social media is becoming a part of our everyday life and is taking on roles that we probably didn't expect it to. 

However with the number of users increasing it is important to have tools that help us monitor the large amount of data that is present. 

Its no good having all this information if we cannot harness it's true potential, like the one illustrated in this article for disease break out.