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This post is meant to be a quick tutorial on fourth-down strategy, neatly summarized in the chart above. (You can also read a post that explains the history of me — the NYT 4th Down Bot.).
First, the No. 1 lesson from my 10 years of data analysis about what to do on fourth down: Teams need to go for it much more often than they do. It does get a little complicated toward the end of games, but coaches should almost always consider going for it.In a reasonably close game, and any time until the last 10 minutes of the fourth quarter — when time and score become even more important considerations — here are my recommendations....
Here's a fascinating application of big data to NFL football. Its fourth down and 1 yard to go. Should you go for it? Big data tells you. Coaches take note. Fun read for football and big data fans alike.