Public Relations & Social Marketing Insight
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Public Relations & Social Marketing Insight
Social marketing, PR insight & thought leadership - from The PR Coach
Curated by Jeff Domansky
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The trouble is not with polling but with the limits to human interpretation of data

The trouble is not with polling but with the limits to human interpretation of data | Public Relations & Social Marketing Insight | Scoop.it

When the US presidential election was called, even Republican strategist Mike Murphy declared data dead. Others have said it’s the end of polling.

 

To those who felt a Hillary Clinton victory was all but certain, Donald Trump’s success at the polls might undermine faith in big data. But this sentiment misunderstands statistics. Data is impartial and accurate; when things go wrong, it’s usually when we try to interpret it.

 

How different people assess risk and make decisions often comes down to how we perceive probabilities. Assigning a probability to an uncertain outcome is part art and science. The most scientific way is to use data—in this case, polling numbers.

 

This time, election forecasts based on polling data were spectacularly inaccurate. They predicted an easy Clinton victory, and assumed that women and college-educated voters would turn out for her in large numbers. In fact, according to exit polls, 42% of women voted for Trump, including 45% of white women with college degrees.

 

Forecasts also predicted hardly any minority voters would consider Trump. But they did. Minority groups voted more for Obama than Clinton. A non-trivial number, nearly one third of Hispanics and Asians, voted for Trump.

 

What seems like a failure of polling data, though, is really our inability to approach the data objectively....

Jeff Domansky's insight:

The end of polling or simply the failure of humans to interpret correctly? Thoughtful reflections on polling.

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What Can The Presidential Candidates Teach Us About Social Marketing?

What Can The Presidential Candidates Teach Us About Social Marketing? | Public Relations & Social Marketing Insight | Scoop.it

To run for president, you need to possess a certain je ne sais quoi when it comes to communicating messages that can provoke people to take action.

So regardless of which side of the aisle you sit on, your brand can take a lesson from each of the master marketers who remain in the race. The candidates clearly know how to engage their base.

Below are some of the top strategies and tactics of Decision 2016, which can be applied easily to your organization’s social channels to gain traction and win over some very loyal constituents....

Jeff Domansky's insight:

Interesting marketing lessons from political candidates.

rodrick rajive lal's curator insight, March 25, 2016 8:55 AM

There is so much to learn from the US Presidential candidates especially  about effective social marketing strategies. Brand promoters  can learn a lot about  how to pitch their ideas, more effectively!

Mike Allen's curator insight, March 26, 2016 4:53 AM

Interesting marketing lessons from political candidates.

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Ivanka's Line Faces #GrabYourWallet Dressing Down

Ivanka's Line Faces #GrabYourWallet Dressing Down | Public Relations & Social Marketing Insight | Scoop.it

Just as with the polling numbers for the election itself, it’s difficult to tell what’s what with Ivanka Trump’s line of clothing. Is it benefiting from all the exposure, including that afforded the #GrabYourWallet boycott campaign started a few weeks ago after the videotape of her father’s salacious brags to Billy Bush surfaced, or is it taking a hit?

“The boycott was started on October 11 by Sue Atencio, a 59-year-old grandmother, and marketing specialist Shannon Coulter, who said they were shocked by Trump’s recently unearthed interview with ‘Access Hollywood’ in which the then-reality TV host bragged about his sexual conquests of women and his ability as a celebrity to ‘grab them by the p–sy,’” Itay Hod writes for The Wrap.

The New Yorker’s Sheelah Kolhatkar wrote an insightful look at Ivanka fighting to “save the brand” the following week. 

“She embraced the family philosophy of turning everything into an opportunity for personal enrichment; the morning after she introduced her father at the Republican National Convention, she broadcast on Twitter an image of herself wearing one of her fashion label’s dresses on the stage with the exhortation: ‘Shop Ivanka’s look from her #RNC speech,’” Kolhatkar wrote....

Jeff Domansky's insight:

When you mix brands and politics you get a potentially negative impact as shown with a variety of the Trump brands.

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